Toledo, Liberty eye momentum for 2023

Toledo will embark on its second trip to the Boca Raton Bowl under coach Jason Candle, in search of the program’s first bowl win since Candle’s debut as head coach in the same game in 2015.

Standing in their way is Liberty, one of the top Group of Five programs over the past four years. A month ago, the Flames won at Arkansas, vaulting all the way to No. 19 in the AP top 25. In September, they lost at then-No. 19 Wake Forest, 37-36.

Liberty (8-4) is just one of seven FBS independents, but it hasn’t stopped the Lynchburg, Va., school from winning, and winning often. Coach Hugh Freeze — and unlimited resources — turned the football program into a behemoth. During Freeze’s four-year tenure, Liberty was 34-15 and won more than half of those games (18) by three touchdowns.

Prior to leaving for Auburn on Nov. 28, Freeze signed a $5 million-per-year contract, an astonishing number for a small Group of Five program, especially one that didn’t move to FBS until 2018.

Liberty has pumped significant money into its facilities and taken an all-in approach to athletics.

The Mid-American Conference champion Rockets (8-5) and Flames kick off at 7:30 p.m. Dec. 20 at FAU Stadium. The game will be televised on ESPN.

UT defeated Temple 21-18 in the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl. Liberty is 3-0 all-time in bowl games.

Here are some early things to know about the matchup:

■ Storyline you’ll hear about most

Liberty is in a similar position as Toledo was the last time the Rockets played in the Boca Raton Bowl. The only difference is interim coach Josh Aldridge will not become the full-time coach at Liberty, which hired Coastal Carolina head coach Jamey Chadwell on Sunday.

“I know coach Aldridge will do a fantastic job as the interim,” Chadwell told the Lynchburg News and Advance. “Really just observing a lot, trying to get to know the players as much as I can and the lay of the land as I put a staff together, and then we’ve got to recruit. The current commitments, try to keep the current commitments, try to bring some people in, and then also looking in the [transfer] portal.”

Seven years ago, Matt Campbell left the Rockets for Iowa State. Then-UT athletic director Mike O’Brien conducted a national search before realizing that Campbell’s replacement was already in town.

Candle, who served as Campbell’s offensive coordinator at Toledo, was going to take the same position at Iowa State. UT’s players overwhelmingly supported hiring the then-36-year-old Candle, the youngest head coach in the country.

Two MAC championships later, Candle and the Rockets are back in Boca Raton.

“To get your first head coaching win was obviously a tremendous experience,” Candle said.

■ Best matchup to watch

Football coaches say every game is won or lost in the trenches. The 2022 Boca Raton Bowl will follow that same script, as Liberty’s defensive line and Toledo’s offensive line will play an outsized role in the final score.

The Flames lead the nation in tackles for loss (109), with more than nine per game, and they’re third nationally with 41 sacks. Senior defensive end Durrell Johnson’s 22.5 tackles for loss are the most in the country, but he’s not the only weapon for Liberty. Defensive tackle Dennis Osagiede has 12.5 TFLs and linebacker Ahmad Walker has 11. Johnson (eight) and Osagiede (six) also have a combined 14 sacks.

Why the concern for Toledo? Because it has allowed 90 tackles for loss this season. Only 13 teams have given up more.

■ Potential X-factor

No one is a bigger X-factor than Johnson, but Liberty has another smooth operator: wide receiver Demario Douglas. The sophomore has 977 receiving yards and six touchdowns this season, averaging 81.4 yards per game. In the two biggest games of the season — Wake Forest and Arkansas — Douglas had a combined 14 catches for 269 yards and three touchdowns.

■ Early prediction

Liberty is a hard team to figure out. It beat Arkansas and almost beat Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. But the Flames also laid some eggs and ride a three-game losing streak. Some of that might relate to Freeze interviewing for the Auburn job. The Rockets have had their own inconsistencies, but they’re a reinvigorated team and quarterback Dequan Finn will be healthy. So how will the offensive line handle a tenacious Liberty D-line? Well enough. Candle ended the MAC championship drought, and now he will end the bowl-win drought. Toledo 30, Liberty 20.

Contact Kyle Rowland at krowland@theblade.com or on Twitter @KyleRowland.